How Normal Chinese People View the Ukraine War: Surveys, Geopolitical Realism, and Anti-US Sentiment

This podcast episode delves into the perspective of 'normal' Chinese citizens regarding the Ukraine war, aiming for an unbiased and accurate portrayal. The host presents findings from two significant surveys: one by Tsinghua University (May 2023) and another by the University of California San Diego (March-April 2022). The Tsinghua survey, involving nearly 3,000 participants, revealed that 80.1% of Chinese respondents blame the US and Western countries for the conflict, with only 8.2% blaming Russia. The UCSD survey, conducted earlier in the war, showed 40.2% support for Russia's invasion, with a striking finding that 51.8% of college-educated Chinese supported the war, compared to 30.8% of those with high school education or below. The host suggests that current figures, given escalating US-China tensions and a predominantly male audience for geopolitics, would likely show even higher support for Russia.

The episode then explores five primary reasons behind these Chinese perspectives. Firstly, Chinese people largely view NATO not as a defensive alliance but as an instrument of US imperial power, citing historical events like the NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade and interventions in Libya and the Middle East. Secondly, NATO's expansion is seen as an unacceptable security risk to Russia, with a Chinese realist viewpoint emphasizing that having the 'right' to do something doesn't always lead to good outcomes, especially for countries geographically close to a major power like Russia. This perspective often leads to a perceived sympathy for Ukrainians as 'not wise enough' to understand geopolitical consequences.

The third point highlights a 'bully versus bully' argument, where many Chinese perceive the US and NATO as a much larger bully than Russia. They argue that if Europeans tolerate US actions globally without sanctions, then it's hypocritical to condemn Russia for similar behavior, implying a moral equivalence that justifies China's non-interventionist stance. Fourthly, a significant underlying factor is deep-seated anti-US sentiment, where figures like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un are seen as 'Batman-type hero figures' for standing up to perceived US bullying, drawing parallels to Chinese frustration over US actions regarding Taiwan or the South China Sea. This sentiment often leads to support for Russia as a counter-balance to US influence, regardless of detailed knowledge about Ukraine.

Finally, Chinese self-interest plays a crucial role, with many believing the US actively seeks to contain China's growth. From this viewpoint, Russia's actions in Ukraine are seen as inadvertently helping China break out of this containment, a sentiment echoed by some Chinese political commentators who suggest China's non-provision of weapons to Russia is already a significant, if understated, support for Ukraine. The host concludes by expressing frustration over the 'hyper-tunnel vision' of many Western interlocutors, who often revert to a simplistic 'Russia is bad' narrative, hindering broader discussions on global geopolitics and historical context.

80.1% of the people say that us and Western countries is most accountable it's the biggest to blame basically for the Ukrainian War

51.8% of college and above education supported the war so the higher the education the person is the more likely they will support the war in Ukraine by Russia

Chinese people do not see NATO as a naive defensive Alliance uh Chinese see NATO as a instrument of the US Imperial power

having the right to do something doesn't mean that it's good to do something that's the Chinese realist point of view

if Europeans are okay with us being a big bully and do all these things around the world and they are not complaining or not putting sanctions and all these things on United States then what's wrong with Russia try to be us

if you are just against Russia then you are being biased if you are not being biased then you know whenever us try to assassinate regime change or you know you know do invasion of another country you should also send weapons to that country and put sanction on us right just to be fair and you know have your moral High Ground

Putin actually become this Batman type of hero figure in some of the Chinese people's mindset

many Chinese consider us is actively trying to compaign China's growth and many actually consider this Russia invasion of Ukraine as Russia trying to help China break out from the current containment

the Europeans should thank the Chinese because the Chinese are not sending weapons to Russia against NATO and that is the biggest support for Ukraine

they are hyper tanov Vis in seeing just Russia and you know as long as Russia is bad that's all they care about